Analysis of JULES1p0 ensemble SSP585

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[1] “baresoilFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c3PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c4PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[4] “cSoil_ens_ssp585_S3” “cVeg_ens_ssp585_S3” “fHarvest_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3”
[7] “fLuc_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “lai_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “nbp_ens_ssp585_S3”
[10] “npp_ens_ssp585_S3” “rh_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “shrubFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[13] “treeFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”

0.1 Which ensemble members match constraints?

Start with Level 2 (Andy’s constraints in NPP, NBP, cSoil and cVeg)

0.1.1 Timeseries of absolute vales

0.1.2 Anomaly timeseries

0.2 Include baresoil fraction data

0.2.1 Anomaly timeseries AW + baresoil

0.3 End-Of-Century values under various constraints

Starting with AW constraints (level 2) and then bare soil (level3)

0.3.1 Histograms of end-of-century absolute values

0.3.2 Histograms of end-of-century changes (anomaly from preindustrial)

0.4 Adding cumulative NBP as a constraint

     [,1] [,2] [,3]
[1,]    1    2    3
[2,]    4    5    6
[3,]    7    8    9
     [,1] [,2] [,3]
[1,]    1    3    6
[2,]    4    9   15
[3,]    7   15   24

0.4.1 Cumulative NBP in the level 4 constrained ensemble

[1] 37
[1] 12.8
[1] 10

0.4.2 The carbon cycle in level 4 constrained ensemble

0.5 the impact of constraints on input space

First, the entire wave01 ensemble. Hard boundaries taken out early are visible here

0.5.1 Level 4 constrained input space

JULES standard member in red.

0.6 Level 5 constraint

0.7 rank the level5 members by their 2100 values

    2100 
139.5931 
[1] -175.2754  249.8923  397.8024

0.8 Level 5 CNPB, with selected test set members

Level5 has constraints on:

NBP, NPP, cVeg, cSoil, baresoilfrac, cumulativeNBP and treefrac.

Level 5 in green, selected test set in sky blue. Standard in dark blue.

0.9 Level 5 input space, with selected members

0.10 Indices in the design of the test set

[1] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "param-perturb-P0811.conf" "param-perturb-P0629.conf"
[1] 918 811 629
     [,1]                       [,2]               [,3]               
[1,] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "17.3046968083808" "-175.275400905985"
[2,] "param-perturb-P0811.conf" "20.665665082613"  "249.892286200105" 
[3,] "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "60.7303559460895" "397.802374430549" 

 [1] "param-perturb-P0506.conf" "param-perturb-P0514.conf" "param-perturb-P0518.conf" "param-perturb-P0534.conf"
 [5] "param-perturb-P0535.conf" "param-perturb-P0571.conf" "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "param-perturb-P0633.conf"
 [9] "param-perturb-P0637.conf" "param-perturb-P0638.conf" "param-perturb-P0655.conf" "param-perturb-P0668.conf"
[13] "param-perturb-P0689.conf" "param-perturb-P0690.conf" "param-perturb-P0694.conf" "param-perturb-P0699.conf"
[17] "param-perturb-P0708.conf" "param-perturb-P0726.conf" "param-perturb-P0737.conf" "param-perturb-P0767.conf"
[21] "param-perturb-P0779.conf" "param-perturb-P0780.conf" "param-perturb-P0786.conf" "param-perturb-P0788.conf"
[25] "param-perturb-P0792.conf" "param-perturb-P0799.conf" "param-perturb-P0806.conf" "param-perturb-P0811.conf"
[29] "param-perturb-P0812.conf" "param-perturb-P0822.conf" "param-perturb-P0830.conf" "param-perturb-P0846.conf"
[33] "param-perturb-P0859.conf" "param-perturb-P0898.conf" "param-perturb-P0905.conf" "param-perturb-P0909.conf"
[37] "param-perturb-P0911.conf" "param-perturb-P0913.conf" "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "param-perturb-P0926.conf"
[41] "param-perturb-P0968.conf" "param-perturb-P0969.conf" "param-perturb-P0989.conf" "param-perturb-P0999.conf"
 [1] 506 514 518 534 535 571 629 633 637 638 655 668 689 690 694 699 708 726 737 767 779 780 786 788 792 799 806 811 812 822 830 846
[33] 859 898 905 909 911 913 918 926 968 969 989 999
      RUNID                      CNBP_1995-2014      CNBP_2100          
 [1,] "param-perturb-P0506.conf" "-7.84657453995265" "172.205803356935" 
 [2,] "param-perturb-P0514.conf" "66.3871666776373"  "76.9772863665623" 
 [3,] "param-perturb-P0518.conf" "-4.32798296984071" "115.693002668575" 
 [4,] "param-perturb-P0534.conf" "55.5836549035358"  "166.764130029029" 
 [5,] "param-perturb-P0535.conf" "47.8569455222457"  "236.600922271012" 
 [6,] "param-perturb-P0571.conf" "23.6581460814361"  "129.211811369449" 
 [7,] "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "60.7303559460895"  "397.802374430549" 
 [8,] "param-perturb-P0633.conf" "15.5122401162351"  "120.868837553522" 
 [9,] "param-perturb-P0637.conf" "46.7165168399118"  "247.738717119868" 
[10,] "param-perturb-P0638.conf" "58.1146374281919"  "44.8472948298766" 
[11,] "param-perturb-P0655.conf" "63.1581396245538"  "27.0499840531412" 
[12,] "param-perturb-P0668.conf" "36.0536153241313"  "161.024336589004" 
[13,] "param-perturb-P0689.conf" "55.0536357350386"  "279.090708879328" 
[14,] "param-perturb-P0690.conf" "18.0253016974566"  "117.090613265657" 
[15,] "param-perturb-P0694.conf" "4.34762479349868"  "150.309551049826" 
[16,] "param-perturb-P0699.conf" "54.0151616871214"  "50.0619408631258" 
[17,] "param-perturb-P0708.conf" "-6.67157214936386" "141.559563974736" 
[18,] "param-perturb-P0726.conf" "19.2984858197139"  "3.36488463251706" 
[19,] "param-perturb-P0737.conf" "61.0012780539166"  "163.461048185285" 
[20,] "param-perturb-P0767.conf" "29.171315753705"   "149.289829747145" 
[21,] "param-perturb-P0779.conf" "52.9149137034168"  "47.5549265466262" 
[22,] "param-perturb-P0780.conf" "43.7796426943458"  "122.488961475274" 
[23,] "param-perturb-P0786.conf" "37.8624365146829"  "174.672229024731" 
[24,] "param-perturb-P0788.conf" "63.6471834643835"  "193.788483182276" 
[25,] "param-perturb-P0792.conf" "45.2360506865352"  "213.570910964087" 
[26,] "param-perturb-P0799.conf" "32.5503106986962"  "83.885852928508"  
[27,] "param-perturb-P0806.conf" "36.1313820232343"  "194.12773028712"  
[28,] "param-perturb-P0811.conf" "20.665665082613"   "249.892286200105" 
[29,] "param-perturb-P0812.conf" "2.31420763940994"  "-6.00808795517249"
[30,] "param-perturb-P0822.conf" "37.6308617488356"  "90.2274194135868" 
[31,] "param-perturb-P0830.conf" "41.3764281016866"  "172.710129733403" 
[32,] "param-perturb-P0846.conf" "26.3891956711879"  "68.4167773199623" 
[33,] "param-perturb-P0859.conf" "59.2184963890963"  "259.046449634767" 
[34,] "param-perturb-P0898.conf" "11.0537941112906"  "150.558454240257" 
[35,] "param-perturb-P0905.conf" "26.7473630296673"  "-76.3858668331925"
[36,] "param-perturb-P0909.conf" "-1.47594975081028" "-28.1145594335714"
[37,] "param-perturb-P0911.conf" "12.6732222928714"  "7.4477265118674"  
[38,] "param-perturb-P0913.conf" "34.3523735215602"  "109.607119430019" 
[39,] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "17.3046968083808"  "-175.275400905985"
[40,] "param-perturb-P0926.conf" "-18.1572803411821" "150.761835973614" 
[41,] "param-perturb-P0968.conf" "33.1584215550412"  "128.828481780042" 
[42,] "param-perturb-P0969.conf" "53.5086154392904"  "48.2149437084363" 
[43,] "param-perturb-P0989.conf" "65.7174836770793"  "228.084244827178" 
[44,] "param-perturb-P0999.conf" "25.5473538706682"  "139.593092216788"